Sunday, February 20, 2011

Spending habits: Back to old ways?

Consumers say they learned their spending lessons in the recession. But recent data already points to a return to our old habits.
Jennifer Smelyanets says she's learned her spending lessons from the recession. Have others? By Jessica Dickler, staff writer



NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Like many consumers, Jennifer Smelyanets, claims she has changed her ways since the recession.
The 25-year-old marketing professional used to blow her biweekly paycheck, even buying a new Acura TSX, while saving nothing aside from a minimal contribution to her 401(k).
But a 10% paycut in 2009 came with a harsh reality: She was living a life she could barely afford. Now Smelyanets says she's more careful when it comes to her income.
Christine Nelson says she's firmly in the saving camp, too, after having her pay cut and her hours reduced to 30 a week last year. She and her husband, who live in central Minnesota, are now resolved to live off one salary even though her income has since been fully restored.
And Kristin Heaton-Peabody also says she's committed to a more frugal lifestyle. During the recession, "we really had to cut costs in all areas," says the co-owner of a day spa in Dallas. And even now that her business has improved, "things haven't really changed."
In fact, 52% of consumers say the recession has "forever changed" the way they spend and save, according to a recent survey by Citigroup. But that's down from 63% when the same survey was conducted a year ago.
"I look at all this talk as New Year's resolutions, nice sentiments but not likely to be implemented with any degree of consistency," said Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact and Opinion Economics. "Once we get into a better a recovery period then we will know whether this new consumer pledge really means anything or not."
And recent reports indicate otherwise. Personal income and spending both rose in December even as personal savings declined, according to the latest data from the Commerce Department.
The amount of revolving consumer debt, mostly on credit cards, also rose in December after falling for 26 straight months, according to the Federal Reserve.
The stores are feeling the rush: After a strong holiday season, retail sales rose again in the January, marking the seventh month of gains.
"The fear of getting fired or not being able to find another job is receding, at the same time you are noticing that you have holes in your socks and your car is old and you are no where near your credit card limit and your savings has grown," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
He predicts that "strong across-the-board consumer spending is going to continue well into 2011" and sales will improve further going forward.
Heaton-Peabody admits that has already booked two vacations this year, after two years of staycations: "One for the whole family to Maui and then my husband and I are taking a trip to Spain." She says she bought the Hawaii trip at an auction calling it "a tremendous deal."
And although Smelyanets says she is more mindful about her savings and has even set up an IRA, she also admits to a recent splurge: a $5,000 deposit on an apartment in Manhattan.
Nelson is eyeing a new couch for the living room.
Kelley Long, a Chicago-based financial coach and CPA, sees this all the time. "People are willing to cut back when they need to, but it is more like they are postponing spending than they are changing it," she says. "As soon as there's a good economic report, they are on the next cruise." 

House OKs $60 billion in budget cuts

WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) -- The Republican-controlled House early Saturday approved more than $60 billion in cuts in federal spending for the current fiscal year, less than two weeks before a deadline to fund the government.
The House vote, completed just after 4:40 a.m. ET, was 235-189. All 186 Democrats voting were against the bill, and they were joined by 3 Republicans.
But all of the cuts are unlikely to be included in the final spending plan for the final seven months of fiscal 2011. Democrats control the Senate, where the House measure heads next, and the Obama administration has indicated it would veto any measure containing all of the House cuts.
The four days of debate on spending was part of the Republicans' vow -- which they believe was part of the November election mandate that gave them control of the House -- to bring government budget deficits under control.
"When we say we are going to cut spending, read my lips: We are going to cut spending," said House Speaker John Boehner on Thursday.
He added that the House wouldn't pass a budget that doesn't cut spending, fueling new speculation of a possible government shutdown if the Senate and House can't reach a compromise by the time current stop-gap funding measures run out March 4.
Late Friday, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California announced that Democrats would introduce another short-term extension of funding at 2010 levels through March 31.
Debt deal: 'History will condemn us' if U.S. punts
"I am hopeful Republican leaders will agree to a short term extension of the freeze as we work to pass a bill the President can sign into law for the remainder of 2011," Pelosi said in a statement.
But Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky quickly dashed any idea of a quick resolution. "Americans have been clear: freezing in place the current unsustainable spending levels is simply unacceptable," he said in response to Pelosi.
The Republican vow to cull $60 billion from the fiscal 2011 budget is their first big opportunity to make good on campaign promises to rid Washington of mounting deficits and government spending.
Among the items approved Friday, lawmakers approved amendments that would block all federal funding for Planned Parenthood, bar any federal agency from spending money on implementing the new health care law, and limit the activities of the Environmental Protection Agency.
A bid by a group of the most conservative House members to cut an additional $22 billion failed Friday after encountering opposition from moderate Republicans and Democrats.
But, since debate began Tuesday, the Republican majority has passed cuts affecting programs they have traditionally opposed. These include millions in dollars of funding for the arts, heating subsidies for poor households, financial services regulation and Internet regulation.
One of the largest additional budget cuts happened Wednesday, when lawmakers of both parties agreed to an amendment stripping $450 million slated to build a new engine for the F-35 fighter jet.
Lawmakers also voted to avert some major cuts. They agreed to restore funding that would keep some firefighters and police officers on the payroll through September, despite an $800 million tab for both.
The House also voted to protect $450 million slated for Amtrak train service, as well as another $200 million in financial help for struggling nations abroad.
Democrats were hopeful of restoring much of the funding for favored projects when the Senate considers the budget resolution.
Although the 2011 budget up for debate only covers the next seven months, March through September, the clock is ticking to pass something soon. The current stop-gap measure that's keeping the lights on at federal agencies expires March 4.
If lawmakers fail to pass a budget -- or at least another stop-gap measure -- by March 4, the federal government could be shut down like it was during the GOP showdown with the Clinton administration in 1995.
With both houses in recess next week, the Senate won't be able to take up the measure until Feb. 28 -- after the traditional reading of George Washington's farewell address. Then the chambers will likely have to negotiate the differences and come to a compromise -- a lot to do in five days, unless some agreement is reached on an extension.
The White House has vowed to veto the budget if it contains the deep cuts that House Republicans are proposing.
Earlier this week, Boehner raised eyebrows when he predicted budget cuts could cost some federal jobs, adding, "so be it."
However, on Thursday, he backed off the tough love stance.
"Listen, I don't want anyone to lose their job whether they are a federal employee or not. But come on! We're broke!," Boehner said. "We've got to make tough decisions and the American people sent their representatives here to Washington to make tough decisions on their behalf.
-- CNN producer Deirdre Walsh contributed to this report

Dollar Drops Versus Euro on Speculation Federal Reserve Won't Raise Rates

The dollar fell against the euro for the first week in almost a month as the Federal Reserve signaled its dissatisfaction with job growth, bolstering speculation it will be slow to increase interest rates.
The greenback dropped against most of its major peers as lower-than-forecast retail sales and a rise in jobless claims damped demand. The Swiss franc surged as investors sought safety amid Middle East turmoil, while the pound rose against the dollar and euro on speculation the Bank of England will raise interest rates. The U.S. economy grew faster in the last quarter of 2010 than first estimated, data next week may show.
“The Fed reiterated that they will maintain a high bar for rate raises,” said Aroop Chatterjee, a currency strategist at Barclays Plc in New York. “Diminished expectations for rate hikes have been U.S. dollar negative.”
The dollar fell 1 percent to $1.3693 per euro in New York, the first weekly loss since Jan. 21, from $1.3554 on Feb. 11. Europe’s shared currency rose a second week versus the yen, gaining 0.7 percent to 113.90 and touching 113.92, the strongest level since Jan. 27. The yen had its first five-day advance against the dollar since Jan. 28, gaining 0.3 percent to 83.18.
The euro gained yesterday against most major counterparts after a European Central Bank Executive Board member, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, said policy makers may need to raise interest rates as global inflation pressures mount.

‘Degree of Accommodation’

“As the economy gradually recovers and global inflationary pressures arise, the degree of accommodation of monetary policy has to be monitored and, if needed, corrected,” Bini Smaghi said in an interview with the daily newsletter Bloomberg Brief: Economics.
The ECB has held its benchmark interest rate at 1 percent since May 2009.
U.S. policy makers “continued to express disappointment in both the pace and the unevenness of the improvements in labor markets,” while also judging the recovery to be on a “firmer footing,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in minutes of its Jan. 25-26 meeting, released Feb. 16. They were divided over whether further evidence of recovery would warrant slowing or reducing $600 billion in U.S. debt purchases to spur growth.
The central bank has left its key rate at zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008 to support the economy. Analysts forecast the rate will rise to 0.5 percent by year-end, according to the weighted average in a Bloomberg News survey.
The dollar had the biggest loss this week, 1.4 percent, among 10 developed-nation currencies in the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes.

Krone, Franc Gain

Norway’s krone, a currency linked to oil exports, and the Swiss franc, considered a haven currency, gained the most, the indexes showed. They rose 2.1 percent and 1.9 percent as unrest surged in the Mideast and oil prices climbed.
Egyptian state television said yesterday Iran won permission to sail two naval ships through the Suez Canal in a move Israel called a “provocation.”
“The warships can increase tensions potentially between Iran and Israel, and since Israel is one of the U.S.’s closest strategic allies, that can weigh on the dollar,” said Joe Manimbo, a market analyst in Washington at Travelex Global Business Payments, a currency-exchange network.
Crude oil for March delivery increased 0.7 percent, the most in five weeks, to $86.20 a barrel in New York on concern supplies may be disrupted.
The franc gained for the week versus 15 of its 16 most- traded peers. It rose 3 percent, the most since Dec.3, to 94.46 centimes per dollar and was up 1.9 percent to 1.2935 per euro.
Top Performer
Norway’s krone was No. 1, climbing 3.2 percent to 5.6684 per dollar and touching 5.6654, the strongest in 13 months. It appreciated 2.2 percent to 7.7609 to the euro.
The 17-nation currency rose against the greenback on Feb. 17 as Labor Department data showed applications for unemployment benefits rose to 410,000 in the week ended Feb. 12, exceeding the 400,000 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.
Retail purchases in the U.S. rose 0.3 percent last month, Commerce Department data showed on Feb. 15, the least since a drop in June. A Bloomberg survey forecast a 0.5 percent gain.
The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.3 percent annual rate from October through December, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey before Commerce Department data due Feb. 25. The rate was estimated in January at 3.2 percent. It was 2.6 percent in the third quarter and 1.7 percent in the second.

Yields Fall

The yen strengthened versus the dollar this week as investors sought the safety of U.S. Treasuries, driving yields down and dimming the attraction of dollar-denominated assets. Yields on U.S. two-year notes decreased nine basis points, the most since the five days ended Sept. 17, to 0.75 percent.
Sterling climbed as pressure increased on the Bank of England to raise its key rate from a record low of 0.5 percent. A Feb. 15 report showed inflation accelerated to double the central bank’s 2 percent target. Bank Governor Mervyn King said the next day inflation will peak this year and ease in 2012. The pound strengthened 1.5 percent to $1.6253.
“Most commentators are at least mildly bullish on the pound,” said John McCarthy, director of currency trading at ING Groep NV in New York. “I’m not sure if it’s justified, because it’s based on rate expectations and King moderated that.”
China’s yuan reached a 17-year high versus the dollar on speculation the nation will allow faster appreciation to tackle inflation and appease trading partners who say it’s undervalued.
The yuan gained 0.21 percent to 6.5732 per dollar as Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers opened a summit in Paris yesterday in an effort to agree on a common approach to global economic imbalances.
To contact the reporters on this story: Catarina Saraiva in New York at asaraiva5@bloomberg.net; Allison Bennett in New York at abennett23@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net

Forex Daily Outlook

Euro Pushing Lower, China Trade Surplus Slumps
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a quiet open the week with stock markets remaining strong but FX markets less interested in selling the USD in response. China’s January Trade Surplus showed a sharp contraction as imports surged 51%. In US stocks, DJIA -5 points closing at 12268, S&P +3 points closing at 1332 and NASDAQ +7 points closing at 2817. Looking ahead, January Retail Sales are forecast at 0.6% vs. 0.66 previously.
The Euro (EUR) fell to 3 week lows as concerns about the rescue of a large German bank reigniting old fears. Focus is also remaining on Portugal the next in line for a bailout as debt costs continue to remain at crisis level for the small European country. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3427 and a high of 1.3560 before closing the day around 1.3490 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Q4 GDP forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.3% previously. Also released, German February ZEW survey forecast at 20 vs. 15.4,
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was strong as USD/JPY fell in Asia from light profit taking but was well supported near Y83. Q4 GDP showed a -0.3% print vs. -0.5% forecast but is still negative, showcasing the struggles of the Japanese economic recovery. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 83.08 and a high of 83.2 before closing the day around 83.35 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) staged a minor rally going into Europe but found sellers lined up and pulled back to 1.6000 support once again. The BOE inflation report is the highlight of the week as BOE Governor King will have to write his 10th letter outlining the central banks response to the higher than mandated target of 2%y/y. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5980 and a high of 1.6081 before closing the day at 1.6025 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) held on to gains better than most as the risk sensitive currency tracked stocks higher. The outlook for Aussie is close related to stock markets and commodities which for the short term are well supported. The longer term direction will be resultant on the speed at which US normalize their interest rates. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9979 and a high of 1.0076 before closing the day at 1.0025 in the New York session. Looking ahead, RBA Meeting Minutes.
Oil & Gold (XAU) trading in the precious metal is getting more compressed everyday around the $1360 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1353 and high of USD $1367 before ending the New York session at USD$1362 an ounce. Continued to ease on profit taking. WTI Oil Closed -$0.68 at $84.90 a barrel.
 
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency
Sup 2
Sup 1
Spot
Res 1
Res 2
EUR/USD
1.3364
1.3396
1.3490
1.3621
1.3736
USD/JPY
81.13
82.34
83.35
83.68
83.91
GBP/USD
1.5964
1.5953
1.6030
1.6113
1.6138
AUD/USD
0.9897
0.9955
 1.0025
1.0137
1.0152
XAU/USD
1343.00
1348
1363
1371
1379
OIL/USD
82.50
84.00
84.90
86.50
88.00

 
 
Euro – 1.3490                    
Initial support at 1.3396 (Jan 20 low) followed by 1.3364 (50% retrace of 1.2867-1.3862). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3621 (Feb 11 high) followed by 1.3736 (Feb 10 High)
 
Yen – 83.35
Initial support is located at 82.34 (Feb 10 low) followed by 81.13 (Feb 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 83.68 (Jan 7 high) followed by 83.91 (Dec 21 high).
Pound – 1.6030
Initial support at 1.5985 (Feb 14 low) followed by 1.5964 (Feb 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6113 (Feb 11 high) followed by 1.6138 (Feb 10 High).
 
Australian Dollar – 1.0025
Initial support at 0.9955 (61.8% retrace of 0.9804-1.02) followed by the 0.9897 (76.4% retrace of 0.9804-1.02). Initial resistance is now at 1.0137 (Feb 11 high) followed by 1.0152 (Feb 9 high).
Gold – 1363
Initial support at 1348 (Feb 8 low) followed by 1343 (Feb 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1371 (Jan 20 high) followed by 1379 (Jan 19 high).
 
Oil – 84.90
Initial support at 84.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 82.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 86.50 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 88.00 (Intraday Resistance).
 
 
Written by Anthony Darvall
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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